The Fiber Year 2008/09
A World Survey on Textile and Nonwovens Industry
The global fiber demand had enjoyed a six-year growth above the blue trend line. In 2008, world fiber demand dropped 6.7% at 67.3 million tons. To a certain extent, this long-standing economic activity in full swing may be result of China’s accession to WTO end-2001. Lower priced apparel was available across the world, pushing innumerable manufacturers in the western hemisphere out of business.
All fiber types suffered from slowing demand. Small-scale fiber types like aramid and carbon fibers weathered the downturn not bad until Q4 2008. Although firm demand fell in aerospace, automotive, military and wind power, they managed to stay on positive territory in terms of the growth rate. The usage of cotton, wool and silk decreased by 10.1% to 25.2m tons, manmade fibers fell by 4.5% to 42.2m tons.
The filament yarn industry has lost a volume of 680,000 tons last year. The strongest decline in volume terms in carpet yarn spinning has resulted from the US housing bubble where housing prices peaked in early 2005 and started to decline in 2006. In Dec. 2008 the Case-Shiller home price index reported its largest price drop in its history. The staple fiber processing volume dropped by 4.2m tons, of which two thirds was due to lower output from cotton spinning.
Latest estimates for current season’s world cotton production account for 23.6 m tons. This would be a decline of 10.2% over the last season. World consumption is projected to drop to 23.9m tons, down 2.8m tons, or -10.5%, from last season.
The cotton production used to grow acc. to the orange trend line until 2002/03. The increasing approval and cultivation of genetically modified cotton has resulted in soaring cotton yields. In the season 2003/04, actual cotton production started to outpace the long-term trend. Since then, the cumulative oversupply accounts for about 25 million tonnes. This scenario has surely triggered surging investments in PES-SF in 2004/05, the major product in blends with cotton. This supply-driven growth has ended in the actual season as the global cotton farmland is forecast at 31.0m hectares, down about 2.1m hectares from the last season.
The cellulosic fiber market declined by 9.1% to 3.3m tons after six consecutive years of growth. The viscose staple fiber segment dropped 10.8% to 2.2m tons while the filament business for textile and industrial yarns declined 17.4% to 370,000 tons. The only growing subsector was in acetate filter tows rising 2.1% at 732,000 tons.
The development in the synthetic fiber segment was also negatively affected by the economic slowdown, in particular the established types of fiber. Total market was down 4.1% to 38.8m tons while PAN dropped 20%, PP (-11%), PA (-10%) and PES (-2%). The only increasing segments were aramids and carbon fiber, jointly accounting for just a nearly 0.2% market share.
Last year’s output of nonwovens and unspun end-uses has witnessed a decline by 3.5% to 6.7 million tonnes after a long expansion phase. The majority of about 6 million tonnes is nonwoven-based while the remaining portion comes from filling material for sleeping bags, anoraks, pillows, mattresses and insulating material in the automotive industry as well as padding material for reinforced building structures. Unlike the spinning industry, bad news about closures or restructuring measures in the nonwovens industry were significantly less.
The Fiber Year 2008/09
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